Downtown Closures - Floor9 misses the mark
February 8, 2008
Floor9 likes to rant about the failures of downtown bars and restaurants. He makes the arguement that this trend may ultimately result in the collapse of the downtown scene. I think that Floor9 is getting a bit too chicken little on us, and his doomsday prophesies may be doing more harm to the town than yet another 2nd Street bar flip.
The problem with Floor9’s arguement is that he is failing to see the parade of Harrisburg bars and restaurants in the context of the restaurant industry as a whole. If you’re not aware, the restaurant field has one of the highest failure rates of any industry. The research indicates that 60% of all new resaurants will close or change owners within the first three years of operation. (Don’t believe me? Ask google!)
Let me repeat that. Three out of every five restaurants will close its doors within three years of opening them. When considering this, Harrisburg seems pretty normal to me, if not even doing a little better. Why? There does not seem to be any shortage of entrpreneurs ready to step up to the plate and try their hand in the vacant space. When a downtown restaurant closes its door, the door doesn’t seem to be closed for long.
February 8, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Chicken little? Ok; you get bonus points for being the first to haul THAT one out.
Don’t misunderstand me. Change is good — when it’s appropriate. Changing something every few months “just because”, however, is not. Especially when that something is as popular, niche, or unique as Smalls was. Or Noma. Or Mars. Or Privado. The revolving door of themes, name changes, “re-alignments”, or whatever this week’s excuse is simply isn’t good for downtown.
Typical nightclub shelf life is about five years under the same owner, give or take. I’ll even bow down to three years. But not fourteen months (Smalls). Certainly not four months (Cabana). Unconditionally not a few days (Konichiwa). When average, non-industry people start to comment on the rapid-fire openings and closings — when said people start to comment that anything good downtown quickly gets rubbed out into a cookie-cutter clone of the place next door — that’s a bad sign. And when owners or managers start repeatedly citing “unprofitability” — especially in a regularly-packed venue such as Smalls — that’s not only a bad sign, but an indication that core business strategies need to be re-evaluated.
The end of downtown? I think so. Tomorrow? I think not. Next year? Unlikely. The year after that?
I love downtown. But it bothers me to see what has now become a regular pattern of something good (such as Smalls) going by the wayside to make way for — surprise — Mars Remixed. Once this pattern becomes a core segment of your business strategy, something has gone wrong.
February 8, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Josh, I’m with you (Floor9 knows this). His post, as Bone points out, is also a lot about Ron Kamionka.
There are reasons for his choice of closures. I’m not defending all of them, certainly, but I’m not sure how the revolving door makes much difference but provide good blogging fodder for those interested. Frankly, some credit is due to Kamionka for taking risks, but being smart enough to make a change when the ideas clearly failed (Cabana, Konnichiwa).
By the way, I recall most local bloggers complaining about Mars demise (despite the fact that it went significantly downhill at the end, thus the closure) and wanted it back. Now it’s here, and that’s not good either, somehow.
From what I understand, Ron reopened as Mars “Remixed” (or Ultra Lounge, whatever) because he knew people had missed it, talked about it and most importantly - would go.
I don’t think that he would define the revolving door concept as a strategy, but he is in a position where he can make changes and try - even if they don’t always work.
I will step off my soapbox after saying this: Six+ years ago when I interviewed Ron for the first time in my first job, I recall him telling me that in his business, people changed and trends changed constantly, and to remain successful, he had to make an effort to continually evolve his venues to try to reflect that. There was actually a good Kamionka quote, but unfortunately, my memory fails me.
February 8, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Just to counter, I gave the three in five statistic in the post, but the same study reported that one in four restaurants close within their first year. Restaurants and bars are failing across the country. I just think that there are many eyes on Harrisburg. Plus, there is a solid core of establishments that have beaten the odds and are doing well.
I do have some thoughts on Smalls specifically that I may share in a post soon.
February 9, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Seems to me like what Ron does with his money is his business. No one is stopping you from opening a bar that reaches the market that some people seem to believe is untapped.
It’s very easy to spend other people’s money…
February 12, 2008 at 1:04 am
I can’t see a downtown collapse, however, I don’t see things improving drastically, either. Restaurant statistics aside, it seems like it’s the same restaurant entrepreneurs closing, rebranding, and reopening. Maybe that’s a misconception, but it emits a negative perception of downtown. Not having any anchor bars–places that have stood the test of time, adds to the that perception.
Sigh. Someone bring back the The Vault.